摘 要：我国外汇储备问题历年来是人们关注的热点，最近的二十多年来增长异常迅猛。2009年初，我国的外汇储备已经突破2万亿美元，15年内增长了40倍，高居世界第一，成为全世界第一个外汇储备超过2万亿美元的国家。我国外汇储备规模迅速扩大，关于外汇储备的相关问题引起了国内理论界的探讨和学者们的广泛关注，但是现实经济的复杂性使得我国外汇储备是否过量难以衡量。尽管如此，不管我国外汇储备规模是否过量，都有必要研究我国外汇储备规模的影响因素。
本文从热点出发，旨在对我国外汇储备规模的影响因素进行实证分析。综合时下对外汇储备规模影响因素的主要理论观点，进而选定贸易差额、外商直接投资实际利用外资额、汇率为参数，建立理论模型；收集相关数据，利用EVIEWS软件对模型进行参数估计和检验，并加以修正；最后得到的结论是贸易顺差和外商直接投资对我国外汇储备规模的扩大有着不可忽视的影响。进而对此相应提出一些政策建议，即保持经常项目适度顺差，适当调整外商直接投资实际利用外资额，积极开辟外汇储备运用的新途径等。
关键词：外汇储备 影响因素 贸易差额 外商直接投资
Abstract:The problem of Chinese foreign exchange reserves is always the concerned hotspot. In recent 20 years it increased abnormal rapidly. Early 2009, Chinese foreign exchange reserves had exceeded 200 trillion dollars, increased by 40 times within 15 years, the highest rate in the world, become the world's first foreign exchange reserves exceed $2 trillion countries. Chinese foreign exchange reserve has expanded rapidly, and concerning foreign exchange reserves of related problems caused domestic theoretical discussion and extensive attention of scholars. But real economic complexity makes Chinese foreign exchange reserve is excessive difficult to measure. Despite this, No matter whether the foreign exchange reserves in China is large, it is necessary to study the influence factors of Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale .
This paper,starting from the hotspot in China to influence factors of Chinese foreign exchange reserve empirical analysis. Integrated nowadays influence factors of foreign exchange reserves scale of the main ideas, selected balance of trade, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange for actual use parameters, established the theoretical model; gathered the relevant data, using EVIEWS software for measuring model parameters were estimated and inspection and amended; the conclusion is trade surplus and foreign direct investment to the expansion of Chinese foreign exchange reserve has overlooked influence . Then it proposes some policy suggestions，such as maintain regular project moderate surplus, adjust the actually utilized foreign direct foreign investment, positively open new ways of using foreign exchange reserves.
Keywords: foreign exchange reserves, ,balance of trade, foreign direct investment
